“If you want the opposite example of Argentina, a very rich country that went bankrupt back in 2002, 12 years later, today, they are still in a crisis, on the verge of a collapse again, much more suffering and no hope -- this is what we did not want to happen in Greece,” he says
He really has some balls to say that:
First of all, they are not "still in a crisis". I fact, they are on the verge of entering into a new crisis: not because of the 2002 default and the new US court ruling against them, but rather because of the nonsensical economic policies they have applied during the last few years following Chaveznomics, but that's a different story for another occasion.
Second, I'm not sure about the "much more suffering" nor the lack of hope: just by looking at real GDP and unemployment rates it doesn't seem like Argentines suffered much more:
The real GDP fell by about the same magnitude during the Argentine and Greek crises
Source: IMF WEO, April 2014
The unemployment rate went up much more sharply in Greece and it has taken much longer to recover
Source: IMF WEO, April 2014
Regarding hope, well, I think Greeks have no hope on catching up with the Argentine GDP and unemployment rate trends during the next decade or so.Just check IMF's forecasts. It seems like they're gonna suffer from very high unemployment and sluggish growth for the foreseeable future
"That's not what they wanted to happen in Greece", I think they wish they had been able to do an outright default, devalue and skip the painful austerity, Argentine style
CdS
He really has some balls to say that:
First of all, they are not "still in a crisis". I fact, they are on the verge of entering into a new crisis: not because of the 2002 default and the new US court ruling against them, but rather because of the nonsensical economic policies they have applied during the last few years following Chaveznomics, but that's a different story for another occasion.
Second, I'm not sure about the "much more suffering" nor the lack of hope: just by looking at real GDP and unemployment rates it doesn't seem like Argentines suffered much more:
The real GDP fell by about the same magnitude during the Argentine and Greek crises
Source: IMF WEO, April 2014
The unemployment rate went up much more sharply in Greece and it has taken much longer to recover
Source: IMF WEO, April 2014
Regarding hope, well, I think Greeks have no hope on catching up with the Argentine GDP and unemployment rate trends during the next decade or so.Just check IMF's forecasts. It seems like they're gonna suffer from very high unemployment and sluggish growth for the foreseeable future
"That's not what they wanted to happen in Greece", I think they wish they had been able to do an outright default, devalue and skip the painful austerity, Argentine style
CdS
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